The tale of two COPs

November 26, 2025

“Here run the thousands of rivers and streams that make up the planet’s largest hydrographic basin. Here live the thousands of species of plants and animals that make up the most diverse biome on Earth. Millions of people and hundreds of indigenous peoples also live here.” Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil President

We arrived in Belém with the echoes of President Lula’s opening remarks, declaring that this COP was the “COP of truth.” Standing in the gateway to the Amazon, the truth was impossible to ignore. This summit was a moment to finally bridge the gap between promises and reality. While that shift has certainly started, it is clear we still have a long way to go.

The official negotiations in Belém delivered on multilateral cooperation, yet they fell short, with NDCs amounting to only a 12% reduction. The text negotiations felt like being stuck in a loop of arguing over commas and conjunctions while the world outside demands urgency. However, the real momentum wasn’t to be found in the plenary halls. It was in São Paulo at the Pre-COP events where the action was. It felt vibrant and engaging as if the agenda was moving forward – with asset owners, asset managers, business, and solutions providers making deals. As noted during a Bloomberg panel on “Investing in Resilience,” the mindset is shifting from merely addressing risk to viewing resilience as a source of competitive advantage. Resilience and adaptation are the key terms of this era, but they only scale when linked to rigorous risk and financial metrics.

Being surrounded by the rainforest pushed us to shift our perspective even harder. Nature was firmly embedded in the climate agenda, and the bio-economy was central to every discussion, with a recurring theme: “We need to value what matters.” Signals are shifting towards common frameworks, standardization, and a shared understanding of the importance of mobilizing finance at scale—moving from billions to trillions. The energy coming from the people of Belém was profound. From shopkeepers to taxi drivers, the local populace was encouraging action: having a populace calling for climate change action is unusual. In addition, the participation and passionate commitment of Indigenous Peoples showed that this COP was not an ivory tower where decisions were made; instead, Brazil demonstrated courageous leadership in redefining what a COP looks and feels like.

Most of the words on “what to do” have already been written. We do not need more text; we need courage. President Lula challenged the world to decide “whether we will have the courage and determination necessary to change.” As we look toward the next COP in Turkey with an Australian Presidency, the focus must shift. We need to move away from the 50,000 people descending on a city toward local and regional approaches. Topics that should be on the table are Oceans and the continuous dialogue connecting international policy to what people actually need. The implementation era has begun, but it requires us to value nature, mobilize capital, and act with the determination that science demands.

Leaving Belém, the answer from the business and finance community is a resounding yes. The negotiations may have stalled, but the real economy is moving. It is time to get to work.

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